Despite the crisis in northern Syria attracting less media attention than in previous years, the situation remains perilous. Yesterday three car bombs exploded in Qamishli killing six people and wounding at least 21 others. At the same time ISIS reported the killing of a Catholic priest and his father. On Sunday, eight people were killed by blasts in Tal Abyad. The areas affected by these attacks were previously occupied by US forces until the US President’s 07 October withdrawal announcement.
A 23 October ceasefire deal between Turkey and Russia has slowed the intensity of that conflict, whilst others rage on. In southern Ras Al Ein, heavy clashes between Turkish-affiliated armed forces and Kurdish forces continue, with fighting also taking place in north-west Manbij as well as Ein Issa. Clashes also continued in other areas of northern Syria.
At the same time, Kurdish and Syrian Government actors have continued their hasty negotiations, which thus far focused on military issues. Syrian President Assad this week referred to “accommodation” with actors in northeast Syria. He spoke as usual about complete territorial control, but also went on to say that things will not return to how they were and that certain facts that will be taken into consideration. Many analysist expect some form of hybrid government in the next phase in northeast Syria. At the moment, the Government of Syria does not have the military forces to project power along the 480km boarder. New governors and mayors in northeast Syria may be centrally appointed, but administration may remain Kurdish controlled.
The two main sticking points are likely to be:
- Kurdish autonomy to be included in an amended Syrian constitution. NB. SDF is not included in constitutional revision committee so it is unclear how this might occur.
- Kurdish forces should not be folded into larger Government of Syria army.
The current presence of US forces adds further weight to the US “Protect the Oil Strategy”in the Middle East, and particularly in northeast Syria. At the same time, this may have a positive impact on access for humanitarian actors, with Fishkabour boarding crossing point remaining in control of US forces, which is important for continuation of humanitarian assistance from Iraq into Syria. Whereas Al Ya’rubiyah Rabisa border crossing point will likely be under the control of Government of Syria forces.
More than 14,000 Syrian refugees have entered Iraq through informal crossing points according to UNHCR. The influx has overwhelmed the capacity of the recently-opened Bardarash camp and more than 800 people are being accommodated at Gawilan transit site.
There is an estimated 100,000 people that remain displaced across northern Syria as a result of Turkish engagement. More than 80,000 are estimated to be displaced in Hassakeh; 18,000 in Raqqa and 7,000 in Aleppo. Three new camps are currently being planned or set-up to accommodate displaced families. A new camp in Tal Samen near Ein Issa is planned to host approximately 600 families; Tweina camp west of Hassakeh will be established in the coming month with up to 3,000 tents; and authorities may reopen Newroz camp near Derek.