Shelling by Azerbaijan into Armenia

Early Sunday morning on September 27, Azerbaijan's military began shelling on the Line of Contact between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh. Shelling has also been reported in Karabakh's capital of Stepanakert.

The Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region was established in the 1920 under the Soviet Government. 95% of the population is ethnically Armenian, despite the zone being within Azerbaijan. This status quo was maintained until 1988, when the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan began to decline, leading the area passing legislation that declared it part of Armenia, despite its positioning with the borders of Azerbaijan. Conflict between the two countries continued over this area, resulting in a Russian brokered ceasefire in 1994, which remained in place until 26 September 2020.

Without successful mediation efforts, the military conflict between the countries will significantly destabilize the South Caucasus region. The Azerbaijan offense is being heavily supported by Turkey. Apart from weapon and military equipment support, there are reports of the militants transferred to Azerbaijan by Turkey from Syria who are already taking part in the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to Armenia sources, a batch of 4000 Syrian fighters of Turkish-backed factions has arrived in Azerbaijan from Turkey right before the offensive.

The situation could disrupt oil and gas exports from Azerbaijan, which produces about 800,000 barrels of oil per day, and is a significant oil and gas exporter to Europe and Central Asia. Russia has an obligation to defend Armenia as per the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) which is a Russia-led military alliance of seven former Soviet states (including Armenia) that was created in 2002. The CSTO's purpose is to ensure the collective defense of any member that faces external aggression. Also worth mentioning the Russia has a military base in Armenia which can be activated in the event Armenia appeals to CSTO for support.