Humanitarian concerns linger large in Lebanon

The severe economic crisis in Lebanon, which has accelerated since the end of 2019, layered with the pre-existing vulnerabilities, and compounded by political instability in Lebanon continues unabated.  The situation is now threatening basic food security, exacerbating protection needs, and eroding access to basic services, particularly for vulnerable girls and boys and as well as other populations such as female-headed households and families composed of persons with disabilities. The economic collapse is affecting the entire population, worsening precarious situations that many families and children already live in. Additional challenges and tragedies such as COVID-19 and the Beirut Blast in August 2020 continue to exacerbate the economic crisis and cause further political turmoil and uncertainty.

Refugees in Lebanon

The situation internal to Lebanon has a history of uncertainty. The country experienced a 15-year civil war 1975-1990, significant influxes of Palestinian refugees at various times, and an influx of 1.5 million people from Syria when the war in Syria began in March 2011. This has meant that Lebanon is host to the highest numbers of refugees per capita in the region. The current population of Lebanon stands at 6.8 million, with 1.5 million Syrian refugees and 475,075 registered Palestinian refugees. Of that total, more than 55 percent of Syrian refugees are children. Such a large population has placed significant strain on Lebanon's basic services, natural resources and public finances and has contributed to the overall collapse of the internal situation.

Governmental policy towards refugees has been strict; 45 percent of Palestinian refugees live in the country’s 12 formal camps, and 268,582 Syrian refugees reside in Informal Settlements. Those who are not living in informal settlements are living in substandard housing arrangements, often in incomplete structures for which families often struggle to meet monthly rent payments. This means that the refugee population are living in unsafe structures (57 percent living in overcrowded or unsafe structures), often lacking access to basic services such as water (42 percent rely on bottled water), waste collection and electricity. Limited access to these essential services causes particular challenges for women and girls due to lack or privacy and increases in gender-based violence.

The Lebanese Government's response to refugees remains strict, and limitations have been placed on Syrian refugees that prevent them from meaningfully accessing social, economic and civil rights. Refugees have had sanctions placed upon them that prevent them from accessing most labour sectors (only one third of Syrian refugees have paid employment), they have extremely limited access to formal education and healthcare, and they are not free to move freely throughout the country, further complicating sustainable employment. Such restrictions force many into unsafe and unregulated informal labour, which in turn can result in heightened protection risks, child labour and risk of incident's that can have long term impact on people's health, all concerns which have already been demonstrably heightened within the current collapse. Women are particularly vulnerable to changes in the economic context, given that they are more likely to be food insecure, unemployed, have no savings, and lack legal documents. This has already resulted in heightened instances of sexual exploitation and abuse.

Lebanon's economic instability

Internal economic and political decisions made in the 1990s following the civil war laid the foundations for the collapse that is happening currently. The pegging of the Lebanese Pound to the dollar in 1997 has taken significant central reserve funding to keep it afloat. Supported through the banking system’s strong dependency on dollar deposits secured through provision of high interest rates, chronic commercial deficits and the Government of Lebanon’s continued reliance on Lebanese diaspora supplying foreign currency has created economic instability. All the while the Government of Lebanon operated with an estimated 155% of national debt against gross domestic product.

An economic downturn in such a market and the continued use of central reserves to keep the dollar afloat increased the government budget deficit, resulting in the lowest GDP per capita in 2019 since 2008. A shortage of dollars in late 2019 led to an emerging black market in which the Lebanese Pound has been severely devalued. In response the government called to increase

taxes on gas and tobacco, and place taxes on WhatsApp calls (and other media forums) in October. Public response was to call for protests which gathered quickly and spread across the country as objection to the long-standing issues mentioned above as well as underlying corruption within the public sector and sectarianism in the Lebanese Government. b

Until the mid-1970s, Lebanon was a fairly prosperous country, but a 15-year-long civil war ushered a temporary freeze on internal development programs and severe environmental impacts. As a result of the war and reinforcement of confessional power-sharing, the country is now dangerously resource scarce and the remaining resources are under significant threat. According to the FAO, “The scale and intensity of deforestation, loss of biological diversity, uncontrolled urbanisation, overgrazing, overexploitation of the limited resources and soil erosion, associated with declines in overall land fertility and forest productivity are unparalleled.” The additional influx of refugees has further threatened the ability that the environment has been able to recover and the extent to which it has been protected by competing Government institutions. Population growth has placed significant demands on the agricultural sector, which provides income for approximately 35 percent of the Lebanese workforce, but it has also pushed changing land use and contributed to de-forestation and topsoil erosion.

Lebanon relies heavily on imports to feed it population and the current economic situation coupled with the inability to produce sufficient food for the country is rapidly contributing to concerns around food insecurity. During the period beginning with the economic crises and COVID, October 2019 to April 2020, WFP recorded a 56 percent increase in prices of food. With 80 percent of the country's food needs relying on imports, this figure can only be expected to rise. In June 2020, WFP reported that 50 percent of Lebanese, 63 percent of Palestinians and 75 percent of Syrians felt worried they would not have enough food to eat over the past month.

Outrage against the Government in lebanon

In the aftermath of the devastating Beirut Blast, the public’s shock and grief quickly turned to outrage. Massive street demonstrations and mounting political pressure compelled Prime Minister Hassan Diab to resign six days after the blast. PM Diab will remain in office in a caretaker role, while President Aoun begins consultations to form a new government. This process—full of backroom dealings that many critics see as part of the deeper problem—may take months. In the meantime, Lebanon will likely languish in a holding pattern. There is real risk that the new government will be only superficially different from the last, and that Lebanon’s status quo power structure—at the root of the economic crisis—will remain intact. In this case, the economic situation will continue to slide for the medium-term, with broad humanitarian implications. At the time of writing, an investigation has been launched into the cause of the Beirut Blast, a process that will receive some external support from both America and France, demonstrating the need for accountability and the extent to which Lebanon’s internal struggles have entered the international stage.

Impact of COVID in Lebanon

COVID-19 reached Lebanon in February 2020, resulting in lockdowns, accelerated mass unemployment and closure of businesses, all of which escalated the ongoing economic collapse. The medium-term prognosis for the secondary impact of COVID-19 is bleak. The health care system, which was already weak, has been overwhelmed and many are no longer able to maintain basic supply stock. In addition, on 4 August 2020, an explosion at the Beirut Port decimated the heart of the city, leaving 300,000 homeless (100,000 of whom are expected to be children), 31 children in hospital, 3000 buildings severely damaged including the city’s major hospitals, and 120 schools destroyed as well as 20 technical and vocational centres. The explosion has not only destroyed hospitals, homes, and businesses, it has also opened a space in which COVID-19 is escalating rapidly due to crowded living, displacement and lack of water for basic sanitation.  As of 20 August the daily caseload was 602, a 600 percent increase since before the Beirut Blast.

Humanitarian Advisors will continue to closely monitor the situation inside Lebanon.